Let’s Talk About Betting Systems for Non-Card Counters
The Fibonacci System
By Al O’Grady
In my last article I talked about a betting strategy for non-card counters called the d’Alembert system. It is a strategy where you increase your bet by one unit after every loss and you decrease your bet one unit every time you win. I have also written about the Martingale system, also known as double-up catch-up. This strategy suggests you keep doubling your bet after every loss and go back to the table minimum after you win. Both systems are flawed, primarily because they increase your bet when you lose. Chasing your losses is not wise. It is far better to increase your bets on winning streaks and to be betting the minimum on losing streaks. There is one system that does just that. It is called the Fibonacci system.
Named after the 12th century mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci, it presented a numerical pattern that is still prevalent today in mathematics, computer algorithms, nature, art, and even financial forecasting. From the sequence, the Golden Ratio (.618) is derived. If you are a math geek like me, this sequence will blow your mind where you can find this ratio in so many facets of our lives.
The numerical sequence is easy to construct. Your first two numbers are 0 and 1. To get the third number you add the first two numbers (0+1=1). Your sequence is now 0,1,1. To get the fourth number you add the 2nd and 3rd numbers (1+1=2). Your sequence is now 0,1,1,2. To get the fifth number you add the 3rd and 4th numbers (1+2=3). Your sequence is now 0,1,1,2,3. You continue this pattern as long as you like. The first 12 numbers of the sequence are 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89.
Since this sequence is prevalent all around us, someone had the idea that it would be a great blackjack betting sequence, too. Let’s examine that, shall we. The idea is simple: You increase your bets on winning streaks so that it coincides with the Fibonacci sequence. If you are playing at a $25 table, one $25 bet represents one unit. Two units represent a $50 bet, and so on. The Fibonacci sequence represents the units bet on a winning streak. If you are at a $25 table and you are on a winning streak, your bets would be $25, $25, $50, $75, $125, $200, and so on. Before you get too excited, I need to burst your bubble and tell you the pitfalls of this system.
The one thing that I do like about this system is that you are increasing your bets on winning streaks and not on losing streaks. Losing streaks will happen—minimize them. Increasing your bets on winning streaks make the wins that much sweeter. Here’s the problem: When do you quit? The most important skill to learn as a gambler is knowing when to walk away, whether you are ahead or behind. What is going to be your win limit? Theoretically, you could be winning and increasing your bet until you reach the table maximum. Most casinos have a 20:1 ratio comparing the table maximum to the table minimum. You could win seven in a row and on your eighth hand you could not bet 21 units but would be limited to 20 units. If you win that bet, will you continue betting the table maximum, will you walk away or will you play two hands? I cannot answer that question. That depends on your goals and risk tolerances.
Maybe you just won a $125 hand, and the sequence has your next bet at $200. Do you stop or continue playing until the streak ends? There is no right or wrong answer, but if you play until the streak ends here are some things to keep in mind.
First, if you play your streak until you lose, you need to take the losing bet into consideration when reviewing the effectiveness of the streak. For example, let us say you won three in a row. You would have bet $25, $25 and $50. You cannot say that a winning streak of three would get you $100. Quite the contrary, a winning streak of three means you won $25, $25 and $50 and then you lost $75. A winning streak of three only nets you $25. You won three in a row, lost one, and you are only up one unit. Is this worthwhile?
But there are bigger issues. Let’s say you are at that $25 table and you have won five hands in a row. You have the mindset of playing the streak until it ends. Your next bet is $200. You have 11 and the dealer’s up-card is a 5. Are you going to double down or just hit? If you feel the extra $200 bet is too much, you are betting beyond your bankroll and you are playing with scared money. If you win, great. If you lose your double down, you have now lost $400 on one hand. Not only that, that one loss also wiped out your five- hand winning streak, putting you down $100.
It can get worse. What about splits? What about multiple splits? What about double downs after splits? One hand can get very, very expensive. And what if the dealer pulls a 21 and kills all your action? A great winning streak was wiped out by one hand that was played correctly.
I marvel at the Fibonacci numerical sequence. It is truly amazing where it can be found in the world but unfortunately, not at the blackjack table. Streaks do happen but you should not be betting so high that one loss can wipe out a winning streak that is rare to begin with. That is the fatal flaw with the Fibonacci system. So, while it is easy to be a critic, some may ask me, what system would I recommend? I will be answering that in my next article. Until then, good luck at the tables and do not forget to tip the dealer. ´
Al O’Grady has been a blackjack dealer for over seven years. He is a freelance writer with an economics degree and is currently pursuing a degree in mathematics.
