FORGET MARTINGALE
The smarter betting strategies I’d actually use at the blackjack table
By Al O’Grady
In my last few articles, I have been writing about several betting strategies for non-card counters and, more importantly, what is wrong with them. The Martingale System, also known as double-up catch-up, will wipe you out with one losing streak; the Lambert System will erode your stack in the long run; and the Fibonacci System can wipe you out on one hand with multiple splits and double downs. It is very easy to be a Monday morning quarterback with these systems but what system would I use? I have two that I can share with you for your enjoyment.
These systems have the following things in common: They do not increase your bet during losing streaks; you never want to chase your losses. Secondly, increase your wager on winning streaks but do not increase it so much that you cannot take full advantage of double downs and splits. Splits and double downs are the way you make money at this game. If your bet is too high and the split or double is too expensive, you are playing beyond your bankroll with scared money. Lastly, set a modest goal with win and loss limits and have the courage to walk away. That point is the hardest.
Without further ado, here are some simple betting strategies for non-card counters that I would recommend. The first one is something I call the one-two system. Bet the table minimum (or one unit) when you are losing and bet two units when you are winning. It is as simple as that. It will slowly grind you profits so long as you have the same number of winning and losing streaks. Here is the problem with it: You will not get rich on this. It is boring, but you sacrifice the thrill for a consistent, low profit. If you are a slow and steady bettor, this system will appeal to you.
There is one other problem with the one-two system: If the table is choppy, you are losing. If you win one hand, lose the next, win one, lose one, your stack will be eroded away. That is because you are losing two units for each one unit you win. If the table is not choppy, go for it. However, to combat the choppy table, there is another system I have for you.
I do not have a name for this system other than to call it my “slow grind.” The betting sequence on winning streaks is simply this: The first hand, you bet one unit. If you win, bet one again. If you win two in a row, increase your bet to one and a half units, and if you win three in a row, bet two units on this hand and each hand thereafter. At any time along the way, when you lose, you go back to betting one unit and start the progression again.
Pretty boring, right? Yes, it is. This is why I call it my slow grind, but let me tell you the advantages of this progression. First, it is defensive. A good defense is a good offense. When you go on a losing streak (not if, but when), you lose the minimum. Second, if it is a choppy table where you win one and then lose one, you are breaking even. And third, this system allows you to take full advantage of all splits and double downs without risking a significant portion of your stack. You can split three times and double down on each without losing your shirt if the dealer should pull a miracle and win everything.
The next thing is the most difficult thing to do in the casino— when do you walk away? This is the biggest mistake players make. If they lose their original buy-in they go to the ATM and come back to chase their losses only to lose more. Or they are on a winning streak and greed has clouded their judgment, so they stay at the table too long, giving back their winnings plus their original buy-in. What is the solution? First, play with money you can afford to lose. Leave your debit and credit cards at home so you cannot be tempted. If you lose, take it like a man and walk away. But what if you are winning?
My suggestion is what I call the 25% rule. If you are up 25% from your buy-in, take your buy-in off the table and put it in your pocket and DO NOT bring it out. If you lose that 25% surplus, walk away. You broke even. I cannot stress this enough—you DID NOT LOSE. If you have not lost that 25% surplus, continue playing as long as you like. Each time you are ahead by another 25% increment, take that 25% off the table and put it in your pocket. These are your profits that YOU DO NOT give back to the casino. Eventually you will lose that 25% increment, which is your signal to walk away from the table. You gave some money back to the casino, but you are an overall winner.
These systems may not appeal to all players. They may be too boring, too conservative or require too much discipline, but they can be very effective. Are they guaranteed to win? Absolutely not. After all, this is called gambling. The casino industry has done the math. The odds are against you. The only way the odds are in your favour at blackjack is if you are a card counter and bet accordingly. These money management strategies are for non- card counters to make you a tougher player while maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses. Remember—fail to plan, then plan to fail.
Good luck at the tables and don’t forget to tip the dealer.
Al O’Grady has been a blackjack dealer for over seven years. He is a freelance writer with an economics degree and is currently pursuing a degree in mathematics.
