LET’S TALK ABOUT BETTING SYSTEMS FOR NON-CARD COUNTERS
The d’Alembert System
By Al O’Grady
There is plenty of information written about blackjack strategy. You can find all sorts of material on the internet pertaining to basic strategy that will tell you when to hit, stick or double down in every situation, but the truth is, basic strategy is only one half of the game. The other half pertains to money management. Why do you play the game? Is it to win hands or win money? What would you rather do, win three out of four hands and lose money, or win one out of four hands and make money? If your goal is to win hands, then follow basic strategy to the letter, but if you want to make money, money management plus basic strategy is your 1-2 combination.
Blackjack is the only game in the casino where a player can have an edge if they are a card counter. They bet the minimum in unfavourable situations, but they increase their bet as the concentration of tens remaining in the deck increases. But what if you do not have it in you to count cards? How can you become a tough player for the casino? The answer is in your betting strategy. It is those strategies that I would like to discuss in this article and the next three articles in this magazine.
Before talking about betting strategies, I cannot stress enough the importance of three rules. First, have a goal. This is why most people fail. They do not know specifically what they want. Make it realistic. It can be very modest, anywhere from 25%-50% of your buy- in. Second, have a plan and stick to it. This is where the money management system comes in. Finally, and this is the toughest one, know when to walk away from the table. It happens every day in the casino where someone is up three, four or five hundred dollars in the first 10 minutes and they stay at the table. They think it is easy and greed has gotten a hold of them. What inevitably happens is they give back their winnings and then their original buy-in. Time is the casino’s friend. Have the self-discipline to walk away after meeting your goal.
Now let us talk about some betting strategies. Last year I wrote an article called “Double Up Catch Up – Double Up and Die.” This pertains to one of the most famous betting strategies. It is called the Martingale System. Please, please, please, do not use this! Theoretically it works, but it will destroy you. The system is simple. You start with the table minimum. If you win, continue betting the table minimum. If you lose, double your bet. If you win the second bet, go back to the table minimum, but if you lose twice in a row, double your bet again. You continue doubling your bet until you win a hand and then you go back to the table minimum. With each win, you gain one minimum bet to your stack, but here is the problem—losing streaks happen. What happens if you lose five in a row? It is not a matter of if it will happen, but when it will happen. Assuming you are at a $25 table, and you are cold as ice, your subsequent bets are $50, $100, $200, $400. If you lose the $400 bet, you cannot bet $800 because the table maximum at a $25 table is $500. What do you do now? So far, you have lost $775. If you take your chips to the $100 table and if you bet and lose two more hands ($800 and $1,600), what now? The table
maximum at a $100 table, depending on the casino, is either $2,000 or $2,500. You cannot bet $3,200 even if you have the bankroll, and if you asked the casino to raise the limit, they would probably say no because they can see what you are doing. Also, are you going to risk another $3,200 so you can be up $25? If your answer is yes, I have some real estate real cheap for you. Have a reality check. The risk far outweighs the reward. Those are the pitfalls of the Martingale System.
However, there is a system I admit I find intriguing. It is called the d’Alembert system, named after the French mathematician Jean le Rond d’Alembert. His system is quite simple. You start with the table minimum. Let’s call this one unit. Each time you lose, you increase your next bet by one unit. Each time you win, you decrease your bet by one unit until you reach the table minimum, and you keep betting the minimum until you lose and you start the process over. It is as simple as that. If you lose four bets in a row and then you win four bets in a row, you have an equal number of wins and losses, but you would be ahead by four units. This system works very well at a choppy table where you win one, lose one, win two, lose two, etc. You increase your profits slowly and steadily. Does this work every time? Absolutely not. This is gambling after all and there are no guarantees. You can have a lengthy losing streak and never get the equal number of wins to offset your losses and make a profit.
However, if you are a recreational player looking for a modest win without having to overwhelm your brain with a card-counting strategy, the d’Alembert system might work for you. But you need to set a limit. I would suggest not going higher than five units. If you hit that mark, reset and start over or consider walking away. But this is a progression system that can have short-term success and keep you at the table a little longer.
The d’Alembert system is based on a faulty premise and that is that you are “due.” Just because you lose a bet that is close to a 50-50 proposition does not mean the same wager has a greater chance of winning next time. It does not. Past performance does not impact future performance. Don’t be thinking that you can quit your job tomorrow and become independently wealthy with this. In the long run, the casino edge will take over this and all systems. Remember, there is a sign outside Las Vegas for those that have “systems.” It says, “Welcome.” Good luck at the tables and do not forget to tip the dealer.
Al O’Grady has been a blackjack dealer for over seven years. He is a freelance writer with an economics degree and is currently pursuing a degree in mathematics.
